Armageddon Hypochondria

I attended the monthly meeting of the Association for Strategic Planning the other day. Dr. Jim Paulsen, Chief Investment Strategist for Wells Capital Management was the speaker. He topic was to provide an update on the economic and financial markets and provide some insight into this insanity that seems to be reality today. Dr. Paulsen and I grew up in two small towns about five miles apart in southeast Iowa. We both went to the same church in small rural Iowa and both of us attended Iowa State University. I hadn’t seen him in many years and I primarily went to the meeting just to see him and see if he remembered me (he vaguely remembered). And as if I really needed it, I was also interested in hearing one more perspective of what is going on in the world.

His message was different. He laid out a compelling argument and one that is not nearly as loud as the “gloom and doom” message we’re hearing from the politicians and media. Dr. Paulsen peppered his talk with a portfolio of graphs and charts comparing this recession to those in the past showing how this recovery (and he does believe we are in a recovery) is “normal.” He doesn’t ignore the challenges (housing, credit/lending levels, and health care costs) but believes the positive economic indicators (company profits, investment, and manufacturing) are moving exactly as he would expect and ahead of where we’ve been before. He also presented a clip of a 1991magazine article from Time Magazine describing the economic environment we were dealing with. You could paste the same words used back then into any article today and you wouldn’t know the difference- political paralysis, health care costs, rising debt, etc. etc.

Dr. Paulsen believes our country is a victim of “Armageddon Hypochondria.” While the recovery, from an economic perspective, is proceeding as almost every other recovery has in the past, he believes we have become victims to the politics and the media hype creating the feeling of gloom and doom and extremely low levels of confidence we are experiencing today.

The numbers in his presentation all made sense and it was nice to hear someone believe we are doing ok- not perfect, but ok.

“Armageddon Hypochondria” is a dangerous disease especially in rough economic times. The endless political-cycles in this country and the 2012 elections will very likely make the disease grow in the future- especially to the uninformed or susceptible. We also can’t confuse Armageddon Hypochondria with the Brutal Reality of what is happening in our country and in the world. Health care costs are absolutely unsustainable, unemployment levels are unacceptable, middle-class America is shaken, and the hyper-connected global economy has changed the game for everyone. Doing nothing and letting the market “self-medicate itself” (Dr. Paulsen’s prescription for Armageddon Hypochondria) is a standard free-market solution.

Using the past to predict the future is standard operating procedure and makes perfect sense. I just wonder if the world dynamics have fundamentally changed too much over the past five years to provide any reliable predictions to what will happen in the future.

I’ve concluded (self-diagnosis) I don’t have Armageddon Hypochondria- but I do believe if we continue to address critical economic , healthcare, and policy issues as we have in the recent past, we could bring ourselves closer to the edge.

I may have the symptoms- I just don’t have the disease- yet.

Remembering the Passion of 9-11-01

The clear blue skies and the crisp chill of early fall bring the memories back again. Some call it “9-11 Blue.” These are the mornings when we recall the time when most Americans lost their naivety and innocence to confront the reality of the world we live in today.

Each year we dutifully honor the lives lost in the tragedy of September 11, 2001. The pain of loss will never leave for some. For the rest of America, it pauses, it honors, and then moves on. Unfortunately, we don’t spend enough time reflecting on the magnitude of what happened on that day. There are too many other things to worry about today.

Since 9-11-01, over 6,000 American heroes have given their lives in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Another 45,000 have been wounded. Thousands of families, friends, and loved-ones grieve for the losses and the sacrifices that have come about as a result of this blatant attack on America’s ideals. Countless others struggle to help those who have returned from these wars to somehow become a part of a different kind of America than existed ten years ago when all of this began. Today’s America can seem like it’s paralyzed and confused.

Yes, we have some challenges. We have some big challenges. But, let’s not forget it wasn’t the government, or politicians, or the military, or big business that pulled us together in 2001. It was the will of the American people who established the direction we wanted to follow. We were united in a cause.

As we pause once again to honor all of those who have sacrificed on 9-11 and beyond, let’s not get distracted by the “self-interest politics” that has slowly but surely become part of the fabric of our political process today. Let’s work together to solve our debt problems, support those fighting for our freedom, fix our educational system, grow our economy, create jobs, and finally fix our health care crisis in a way that can only happen in America; a unified nation of individuals with a common purpose and a passion for liberty and democracy for all. We’ve done it before and we can do it again.

Those who have already sacrificed deserve nothing less.