What Health Plans Are Thinking; AHIP Conference; Day 1

It's amazing what a difference a year makes. When I was at this conference last year, health care reform was discussed, but most political commentators didn't think much would happen- there was interest- but not a lot of passion.

In June of last year we were talking about gas prices, then the banks started to fail, then it was the economy. But, in January of this year, the OMB made a statement that has remained at the center of where we are today- we cannot fix the economy unless we fix health care.

An interesting statistic- of the significant debt we are now assuming with the new budget- $35 trillion of that debt is Medicare- if we don't fix Medicare- we're hosed. We can't fix the economy if we don't fix health care. Finally, we're bringing the two together.

So, it's going to be an interesting conference to hear what the health plans are thinking right now. I have a feeling most of it is going to be about health care reform. The tone I'm picking up (and it's only the first day so I could be wrong)- is that health plans aren't as sure of themselves as they were in years past. Health plans were the drivers in the past, now they are the passengers.

I attended a seminar put on by Deloitte Touche which was absolutely fascinating that I think is going to set the stage for the next two days. Within the next two weeks we're going to start seeing all of the proposals being developed by Congress and then the "discussion" will really begin. There are 5 major Republican proposals being developed, and 5-15 Democratic proposals. But, the consensus of the group----- something will be enacted this year (Obama wants to have it signed by Thanksgiving). What a difference a year makes.

Deloitte's model of health care reform includes 4 basic components all developed sequentially. First is establishing a solid health information technology structure that we don't have today. Second is focusing more intently on comparative effectiveness and evidence-based service delivery, third is coordinating care, and fourth is consumerism. All of these components are being discussed- but I wonder if we're going to have the time to sequentially execute as opposed to combining some of the components. The group estimated 6-10 years to put this model in place. I don't think we have that much time.

The exhibit hall seemed much smaller this year. I've used the size of the exhibit hall as a gauge of the "health of health care" in the past. I remember when the halls at this conference were immense with huge displays by some of the vendors. I didn't see that today- but I'll spend more time there tomorrow.

So, it's going to be an interesting few days here. Bottom-line- the health care marketplace is going to change and health plans, providers, employers, and consumers had better be ready.

Until tomorrow from San Diego