Reform- Going Forward

The way health care is delivered and financed in this country is going to change as a result of the legislation passed in the House last Sunday and signed into law today. We now have the opportunity to listen to the analysis of what it all means, the stories behind how it happened, and predictions of the consequences. In reality, no one has a clue.

What we do know is the approach that we are going to use to reform the health care system is very expensive, administratively complex, and has an unknown level of support from the stakeholders who are going to be needed to put it all into place. We know that millions of new customers (“customers” is the buzz-word) will be injected into the system. Health plans – in the private sector- see this as an opportunity. Aetna’s and United HealthGroup’s stock prices are up 80% and 60% respectively over the past twelve months. While health plans were made the “poster-child” of the debate, most are doing just fine, thank-you. We also know that with this influx of new customers there may likely be an increased demand placed on the system itself. Some don’t think this will cause any additional stress on an already strained system (primary care and hospitals)- we think it will.

We have all learned more about the parliamentary rules that are part of our legislative process through this debate than we would care to know. We have learned more about how Congress really works through this debate than we would care to know. And, we are likely to see and learn more new and interesting things as the efforts to stop the legislation continue to unfold.

We agree that more individuals will now be a part of the health care system than ever before and that is good. But, we believe that the ultimate costs are going to be much, much, more than projected (Medicare blew-through its projections in less than two years). While those supporting the legislation are touting the CBO numbers, quite frankly, we think the assumptions are optimistic at-best. And assuming the best is risky for our economy right now.

No matter which side you are on, Sunday’s vote and today’s enactment were historic events for this country. Whether you agree or disagree with the legislation itself we at least have a foundation to use to plan our business approaches for the future. This foundation will certainly change, but at least we have a footprint to follow.

The path we were on was unsustainable. The process we went through was quite ugly. I hope the path we’ve chosen doesn’t break-the-bank before it fixes the problems that need to be fixed. Time will tell.